Escalation

Michael F. Duggan

Yesterday German Chancellor Olaf Sholz announced that his country would provide weapons (Stinger antiaircraft missiles and antitank weapons) to Ukrainians fighting the Russians. Russia has put its nuclear forces on a high alert status. It also has an announced policy stating that it may use tactical nuclear weapons in a conventional conflict.

In spite of their impressive resistance to the Russian invaders, there is no way that Ukraine could defeat Russia should the latter decide to go all-in. Likewise, there is no reasonably way that Russia could successfully occupy and pacify all Ukraine without doing irreparable damage to itself. Given this—and with even more foreign weapons thrown into the mix and with thousands of Russian nukes at a heightened state of readiness—what could possibly go wrong? At best the announcement of Russia raising its nuclear alert status to what is perhaps the equivalent to DEFCON3, means that they are feeling the pressure.1 One only hopes that Putin is not becoming unhinged by it.

Given how dangerous this crisis is and the fact that Russia has undoubtedly received the message that much of the world condemns its invasion of Ukraine, it follows that the entire diplomatic effort of the West should be geared toward the de-escalation of this dangerous crisis with an ceasefire as an initial goal.2

Can Putin be bargained with at this point? Probably not by officials or advisors representing the United States or President Zelensky. Things may be too poisoned by now (how do you negotiate with someone who your side has characterized as a monster?). A friend of mine suggested that the commanders of the Ukrainian army could plausibly meet with Putin or his representatives. That might be a way out of this crisis: if Putin was to say: if Ukraine pledges to abide by the Minsk II provisions for greater autonomy for the Donbas region, I will order the withdrawal of Russian forces. I don’t know if it will happen, but as a guest on a political talk show, a former military man, recently observed, something like this would fit with the Russian modus operandi: go in with force and pull out when you get what you want (the Russian incursion in Georgia, in 2008 was the example he gave).3

Notes

  1. David E. Sanger and William J, Borad, “Putin Declares a Nuclear Alert, and Biden Seeks De-escalation,” The New York Times, February 27, 2022.
  2. Some of the countries that support Russia or are still doing business with them include Belarus, Brazil, China, Cuba, India, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Syria, and Venezuela.
  3. Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson, February 27, 2027.