Monthly Archives: December 2022

By Michael F. Duggan

It is unclear whether or not Russia will attempt to win the war by relying entirely on its current air campaign to degrade the Ukrainian power grid and infrastructure, or if it will also launch a bona fide ground offensive. Conditions for a winter blitz are not yet favorable.

That said—and the spontaneous Christmas Truce of 1914 on the Western Front not withstanding—holidays and weekends in December have often been favorite times to launch attacks. George Washington’s audacious raid that became the rout known as the Battle of Trenton was launched on Christmas night in 1776. In 1973 the Israelis were taken by surprise by the Egyptians and Syrians on Yom Kippur. And of course the U.S. Pacific fleet was caught off guard on a Sunday morning in December 1941. The Ardennes Offensive—the Battle of the Bulge—was launched by the Germans on a Saturday a little more than a week before Christmas, 1944. They took advantage of the frozen ground when winter came early that year.

Of course given that speculation about a Russian offensive is being bandied about even on a source as marginal as this one on no basis greater than an understanding of history, what I read and see in the news and commentary, and some basic facts in the public sphere, there is little hope of the Russians achieving surprise. Thus in military terms, it may make no difference when it comes beyond considerations of the weather and logistical factors.

It is doubtful that the ground is frozen in Ukraine (tanks do better on hard ground), especially in the southern portion of the war zone. Therefore an armor-tipped Russian offensive may not be in the offing over the Holidays. But, if it is coming at all, it may be in the early months of the New Year.

By Michael F. Duggan

I came across an interesting nugget of Holiday history in Michael Grant’s collection of biographical sketches, The Roman Emperors.

After the protracted period of crises in the middle decades of the 3rd century, Rome rebounded through a series of military victories. The most notable of the emperor-generals of this period was Aurelian (not to be confused with Marcus Aurelius), who governed during A.D. 270-275. Although he only ruled for five years, he was one of the outstanding military men in of Roman history, and one of the notable emperors of the later Roman Empire (unless you mark the later Empire as beginning with Diocletian in 284).

In domestic affairs, Aurelian favored the monotheistic Sun cult, Sol Invicus, that was rising (no pun intended) at the time along with Christianity and was its great benefactor. As Grant puts it: “His birthday was to be celebrated on 25 December (which was eventually a bequest of the solar cult to Christianity, converted into Christmas day);”¹ his actual birthday was September 9. Given that recent scholarship places Christ’s birthday as possibly being in the spring, it is curious that the 25th of December would be celebrated for both the Prince of Peace and one of the most warlike Romans, whose nickname was “Sword-in-hand.”² Oh, bitter, irony.

Of course the proximity of the day to the winter solstice also made it easier to convert traditional pagans to the faith that became Rome’s official religion under Constantine a number of decades later. It all makes me wonder about fertility symbols like eggs and rabbits and their connection to Easter.

Note
1. Michael Grant, The Roman Emperors (New York: Simon & Schuster, 1985), 187.
2. Grant, 188.

By Michael F. Duggan

With Russian reservists arriving or soon to arrive at the front in eastern Ukraine, it is possible that a winter ground offensive is in the works. One also hears the argument: given that the ongoing drone and missile campaign appears to be degrading the Ukrainian infrastructure at the onset of winter, and that a massive land assault could bringing NATO units directly into the fight while risking increased casualty rates even without a wider war, Russia may choose to stake its chances on the air offensive alone. If this is true, it is also a gamble.

My father was a career combat infantry officer, and while he readily conceded the importance of airpower, it was always secondary and adjunct in his estimation. Tactical air superiority gave ground forces a powerful advantage, and strategic bombing was always impressive in terms of scale. But it was “boots on the ground” that won wars.

As time went on, there were exceptions to this rule; the NATO air campaign in Kosovo in 1999 appears to have been decisive without the introduction of Western ground forces. Likewise the aerial portion of Operation Desert Storm all but destroyed the Iraqi Army and might have been decisive had the war continued. Although the trend toward something like decisive air war under certain circumstances is more than suggestive, as of now Desert Storm and Kosovo are exceptions.

The Nazi Blitz of September 1940 to May 1941 only steeled British resolve, and the massive allied bombing campaigns over Germany are believed to have not been decisive in winning the war on the European front in WWII. Likewise, the B-29 fire raids on Japanese cities spread horror and suffering, but in spite of the hundreds of thousands of civilians killed, they did not by themselves end the war. The tonnage of high explosives dropped on North Korea and North Vietnam boggles the mind, and yet these air campaigns did not break the will of the people in either country. The regimes in Hanoi and Pyongyang remain in place.

Is the current drone and missile campaign the anticipated Russian winter offensive? Time will tell. If this is Russia’s strategy, will it work, and what will become of a Ukraine with great reductions in power and sanitation? Who will pay for and rebuild the Ukrainian grid and other infrastructure? The Ukrainians have shown themselves to be brave, tough, and resilient, but all of the signs point to a long and difficult winter for them. As of now, the Russian aerial blitz appears to be yet another aggravating factor in what has been a humanitarian disaster from the start. With the possibility of the United States supplying Ukraine with Patriot missiles, it has also triggered another round of escalation.