By Michael F. Duggan
It is unclear whether or not Russia will attempt to win the war by relying entirely on its current air campaign to degrade the Ukrainian power grid and infrastructure, or if it will also launch a bona fide ground offensive. Conditions for a winter blitz are not yet favorable.
That said—and the spontaneous Christmas Truce of 1914 on the Western Front not withstanding—holidays and weekends in December have often been favorite times to launch attacks. George Washington’s audacious raid that became the rout known as the Battle of Trenton was launched on Christmas night in 1776. In 1973 the Israelis were taken by surprise by the Egyptians and Syrians on Yom Kippur. And of course the U.S. Pacific fleet was caught off guard on a Sunday morning in December 1941. The Ardennes Offensive—the Battle of the Bulge—was launched by the Germans on a Saturday a little more than a week before Christmas, 1944. They took advantage of the frozen ground when winter came early that year.
Of course given that speculation about a Russian offensive is being bandied about even on a source as marginal as this one on no basis greater than an understanding of history, what I read and see in the news and commentary, and some basic facts in the public sphere, there is little hope of the Russians achieving surprise. Thus in military terms, it may make no difference when it comes beyond considerations of the weather and logistical factors.
It is doubtful that the ground is frozen in Ukraine (tanks do better on hard ground), especially in the southern portion of the war zone. Therefore an armor-tipped Russian offensive may not be in the offing over the Holidays. But, if it is coming at all, it may be in the early months of the New Year.