By Michael F. Duggan
From the start of its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s objectives have been unclear. Is the invasion an effort to annex the Donbas region? Is it a ill advised attempt to permanently occupy and subdue all of Ukraine? Although Russia has now attacked airfields in western Ukraine, most of the fighting has been east of the Dnieper River and along the Black Sea coast. A corridor between Crimea and the Donbas region appears to be complete.
Is it possible that the Russian war planners intend to divide the nation along the Dnieper, a convenient natural demarcation? If Putin wishes to split the country along its central river, he would also want to pressure the national capital (to the west of the river) directly. This may be his aim—thus the corridor the Russians have established from Belarus to the outskirts of Kyiv (Kiev). Of course it is just as likely that Russian forces will continue their slow, blundering occupation of the entire country.
In wide angle, what does the war mean? As Andrew Bacevich observes, the world today is much as it was before the invasion. But one can only wonder if the invasion formally marks the end of economic globalization and the beginning of a multipolar world with a new, multipolar cold war to match. The Cold War of 1945-1991 was based on ideological lines; the new cold war will be between the interests of the oligarchs of the major powers. It will be between a neoliberal capitalist system and authoritarian state capitalism. All the while, the crises of the environment will continue to unfold mostly unabated.