By Michael F. Duggan
For several months, I along with many other commentators, have predicted that the primary Russian war aim in Ukraine is to annex some of the eastern, predominately Russian and Russian-speaking parts of the Country. Although the initial Russian incursion in the north and northeastern parts of Ukraine appeared to be aimed at taking Kyiv—and although the withdrawal of Russian forces there, the northeastern rim of Ukraine, and Kharkiv have been reported as bona fide defeats for them—this part of the invasion now appears to have been a feint to spread out Ukrainian forces and to draw them away from the eastern and southeastern parts of the country. The consolidation of the eastern regions by Russian forces may bear this out. If it was a miscalculation, they now have adjusted their operations and logistics to a more realistic and effective strategy.
What the war may boil down to then is a broader and more intense version of the Ukrainian Civil War from 2014 to early 2022. The lines will be further to the west—the annexed territory will be deeper and wider than that previously held by the Russian-Ukrainians of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions—and the fighting will be heavier. It will be a proxy war on the part of the United States, thus keeping alive the possibility of miscalculation and dangerous escalation by both sides.
It could settle into a festering war of position (think of the fixed lines, trenches, artillery barrages, and raids of the Western Front during WWI, only with 21st century weaponry and without massed infantry assaults). This appears to be a likely and least-bad outcome and one that will last until one or both sides get tired of the killing. Of course, if the front does “simmer down” over time, the result could be a landmine laden armed border—a no man’s land—like the Demilitarized Zone in Korea. Or it could escalate into a larger and far more destructive conflict. The summer and fall may tell.
The Russians now appear to have the upper hand in eastern Ukraine. But as more, and more sophisticated American and British weapons arrive on the battlefield, we can expect a sharp uptick in the intensity of the fighting over the coming weeks and months. It will be a long, deadly summer in eastern Ukraine and perhaps in western Russia.