By Michael F. Duggan
Well, wishful thinking, or a hitherto undetected surge of Millennials and Gen-Zers, or legions of closet pro-abortion rights women, or something else flying under the radar, or all of the above appears to have blunted the Great Red Wave. Turned it into a scarlet ripple in spite of Gerrymandering, intimidation, and other forms of suppression. But the indications are still of a slightly rising crimson tide as regards the House of Representatives.
A narrow margin of Republican control of the House will likely put a damper on the more extreme of GOP ambitions for the next two years (e.g. impeaching President Biden), assuming that the Senate remains under Democratic control. For the Democrats, this may be the legislative equivalent of almost surviving a car crash (or being killed but with an unmangled corpse; you get the idea). Unless a bipartisan coalition emerges in the establishment middle, gridlock will likely result from the red tide. Weak control of the House could also undermine Kevin McCarthy’s efforts to defund the war in Ukraine, if he is the new Speaker. We should also remember that it is dashed expectations that spark revolts, and it the the far right may radicalize to an even greater extent than to date. Stay tuned.
But for now, in terms of domestic politics, things could have been worse. And although it is still early and much remains in flux—and a dismal bigger picture remains firmly in place, and Ron DeSantis won in a landslide—I am delighted to have been more wrong than right in my predictions of this one.