By Michael F. Duggan
It is hard to know what is really going on in Ukraine. In September Vladimir Putin, ordered the call-up of 300,000 Russian reservists. It is likely that these reinforcements are already arriving on the front in eastern Ukraine. Their quality as soldiers is yet to be determined (and to date, the Ukrainians have fought magnificently, and one hears stories of “sheep-dipped” Polish and other foreign troops now fighting with them).1 But as with the arrival of around 2 million green American troops on the Western Front by the summer of 1918, their numbers may prove decisive. Some sources put the number of Russian troops in the staging areas behind their lines at more than a half-million.2
Sometime in the coming months after the ground freezes—it may be late December, or January, February, or March—the refortified, retooled Russian Ground Forces will probably launch a winter offensive. By virtue of its numbers and reconceived offensive purpose combined with the reduction of Ukrainian energy grids and infrastructure, and with the onset of winter, this push may achieve the Russian territorial war aims in eastern Ukraine and along its Black Sea coast (remember, when analyzing the strategic situation, consider all of the possible resources that both sides may bring to bear). The question is whether or not United States and NATO combat units will intervene directly if the Ukrainian lines collapse. If they did, it would signal the beginning of World War III in earnest.
Postscript December 15, 2022
A friend has suggested that some commentators have proposed a new theory of a possible Russian strategy in the Ukraine war. It states that if the Russians believe they can defeat Ukraine via a protracted campaign of cruise missile and drone attacks, they will not launch an all out land offensive.
Note.
1). Scott Ritter and others have reported that foreign troops are now fighting with the Ukrainians in Ukrainian uniforms.
2). Former U.S. Army officer, Douglas Macgregor, puts the current Russian troop level at around 540,000. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/washingtons-carthaginian-peace-collides-with-reality/