By Michael F. Duggan
Like so much in a war that makes little sense, the blowing up of the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam upriver from Kherson is baffling. It appears to have been either a mutually destructive act of desperation by one side or the other, or else an accident.
Why would the Russians blow up the Dam? Consider:
- The Western media would likely blame Russia in any event, thus giving rise to greater sympathy for Ukraine just as support for the war is flagging in the NATO nations and as Russian dominance on the battlefield appears to be consolidating.
- A major prong of Russian strategy has been to systematically destroy/degrade Ukrainian infrastructure. Given this, why would Russia so vehemently deny culpability in this particular instance?
- The Russian defensive positions on the bottomland of the “Left Bank” of the Dnieper are lower than the adjacent shore, the Ukrainian-controlled side of the river. Why would the Russians flood their own positions before pulling back their forces and defenses?
- Why would the Russians turn off the water to Crimea, including the Crimea Canal?
- Why would Russia turn off the water to a nuclear power plant under their control?
- Taking out the “Kakhovka Sea”—a Great Salt Lake-size reservoir 150 miles long and 14 miles wide at points (and an impressive defensive barrier)—increases the length of front line significantly between Kherson and Zaporizhia. Once the mud dries, the Dniepro will presumably be easier to cross in this area. The Russians will now have a considerably longer defensive line to defend. This will have the practical effect of drawing Russian forces and resources off of other parts of the line (although in the event of a Russian offensive, all of these observations could be applied to the Ukrainians).
- Could Russia have blown the dam in order to thwart an impending cross-river attack on the Russian-controlled portion of the Kherson Oblast?
Why would the Ukrainians blow up the Dam?
- Why would the Ukrainians intentionally flood large areas of Kherson, a city they fought so hard to retake, as well as dozens of smaller towns?
- Why would they cut off the water to the agricultural areas of southern Ukraine under their control?
- Why would they inflict such a distraction onto themselves immediately before launching the much-discussed spring offensive?
- The idea that the Ukrainians blew the dam might make sense as an act of extreme desperation to win greater sympathy from Europe and to flood Russian forces on the eastern bank of the lower Dnieper. It could also be useful as a justification if the spring offensive fails.
All of the reasons for either side blowing the dame seem thin and/or counterproductive. Both sides will suffer from the lost irrigation water and from the environmental damage done to the region, the Black Sea, and its fisheries. Perhaps it was an accident of the kind so common in war, a fuckup. Sometimes the least dramatic answer is the real one. The dam had been shelled by the Ukrainians and it is possible that the Russian occupiers let the water behind the dam rise to an unsafe level during and after the winter rains.