By Michael F. Duggan
Last week the Ukrainian Ground Forces took the village of Robotyne on the Russian front lines along the Tomak-Melitopol axis in Zaporizhzhia. The town appears to have been destroyed and one wonders if the destruction was entirely due to extremely heavy fighting, or if it was pre-targeted as a likely objective of the counteroffensive, or both. The next town in the direction of Tomak is Novoprokopivka, a short distance to the south.
But rather than attacking this town directly, Ukrainian forces appear to be using a flanking operation from the east in order to envelope or else bypass it. They appear to be moving southeast by the left flank, toward the town of Verbove. Reports from both sides indicate that advanced elements of the elite Ukrainian 82nd Airmobile Brigade, which until recently had been held in reserve, have breached the initial Russian lines of tank traps and minefields by securing a road into the town. At this point, the Ukrainians may be holding the northwest part of Verbove.
When a combined arms operation breaches the initial lines of a defense-in-depth, it has either found a chink in the enemy armor—a corridor through which it may more easily pass—or it has stumbled into a shaping zone with presighted artillery traps. The Ukrainian Ground Forces have penetrated the grey zone to a depth of roughly four miles, creating an impressive salient. At this point, the Ukrainians and the West are measuring success in terms of territory taken while the Russians appear to be fighting an attritional war. It is Jomini versus von Clausewitz.
Advances in territory have to be measure against what military men call burn rates—casualties, losses of vehicles and materiel, and the expenditures of munitions, especially artillery shells. These rates must then be measured against, not only the ground gained, but the capacity of both sides to sustain and replace such losses. Measuring success in terms of territory gained (a Jominian approach to tactics, operations, and strategy) can be misleading, unless such gains signify a game-changing breakthrough or an all out collapse of the enemy lines.
But what is really going on? What is real? Accurate information is difficult to come by and all of these observations are conjectural and based on control maps and other publicly-available online sources. It is in the interest of both sides to lie about casualties. Questions abound: Have the Ukrainians found a genuine weak point in the Russian lines that they are now effectively exploiting? Have they created a breach through which armor and mechanized infantry can now be rammed through with momentum toward objectives deeper into Russian-held territory with a strategic goal of cutting a swath to the Sea of Azov? Did they really avoid the worst of Russian defenses—tank traps, dragon’s teeth, and minefields—by securing a road leading directly into a likely objective? If so, why was this approach not more heavily defended by the Russians? Was it, as Western news outlets are reporting, less guarded so as to allow Russians to pull back quickly, and, if so, was it intended as a Russian escape route, or a means to draw the in the Ukrainians? Time will tell.
These may be real gains—the attackers have gained ground. The Ukrainians may be exploiting a weak point in the Russian defenses, or, given that they have only breached the foremost Russian lines, it could be an artillery trap. After all, why would the Russians allow a weak point along a vector running near a succession of strategic towns, but one that also directs the attackers away from that line? Deception is a first principle of war.
Robotyne is about 18 miles from Tokmak and around 54 miles from Melitopol. The sea is a little beyond Melitopol.