By Michael F. Duggan
In an essay titled “Fog of War brought Down to Life” (September 4), Gilbert Doctorow suggests that even the most informed of us—a category to which I do not include myself—really have little idea of what is happening on the front lines in Ukraine. At least that is how I read it.
Western news sources point out Russian mistakes and miscalculations, poor equipment, bad morale, and incompetent leadership, and yet they devised a defensive line in depth that stopped the Ukrainian summer counteroffensive. Some independent, realist, and pro-Russian sources predicted the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, huge casualty rates, shortages of Ukrainian reserves and artillery shells, and a grinding Russian counter-counteroffensive leading to victory in late summer or fall. And yet is late summer and Ukraine is still punching hard and fighting back with great intensity.
Scott Ritter stands by his prediction of a Russian strategic victory over the coming month or two, and Western media sources are heartened by the apparent breakthrough by Ukrainian forces in the area around Robotyne and Verbove. What seems certain is that something will give, somewhere. The alternative is an “ugly” Russian victory and/or a never-ending frozen conflict that is like a larger and more active version of the demilitarized zone between the Koreas. Ukraine may end up as “Korea West” in the new Cold War.